MLBTR Chat

2:58 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 19:58:30 GMT

Hey everyone. What's on your minds this week? Lots of discussion related to Bourn, Lohse, A-Rod and others in recent days.

3:01 Comment From Aaron S

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:01:11 GMT

What are Bourns options could Tampa or Detroit be a fit

3:02 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:02:07 GMT

I don't see the Tigers as a fit. I expect they'll stick with Jackson in center field and a mix including Dirks in left. As for the Rays, I don't see them spending at Bourn's level. That leaves teams like the Mets, Mariners and Rangers as possible suitors in my view.

3:02 Comment From Johnny

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:02:28 GMT

Yankees are secretly happy about this new development with Arod?

3:03 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:03:53 GMT

Joel Sherman reported today that the Yankees are privately thrilled since it could provide them with a way of escaping from under Rodriguez's contract. I doubt they'd win a battle against the players association on this one, but it seems possible they could stick insurance companies with much of the bill if A-Rod is indeed unable to play.

3:04 Comment From joey

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:04:10 GMT

who will joe saunders end up signing with?

3:04 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:04:22 GMT

If I had to guess I'd say the Twins, Orioles or Mariners.

3:04 Comment From Chris

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:04:38 GMT

Do you see Milwaukee as a fit for Lohse?

3:05 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:05:22 GMT

I doubt it. They have a top 20 pick and seem to want to keep it and give their young arms a chance in 2013. I know Attanasio didn't totally rule the possibility out, but I still don't expect it to happen.

3:05 Comment From Justin K

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:05:25 GMT

Do you think arod will still be a yankee this time next year?

3:05 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:05:29 GMT

Yes.

3:06 Comment From Eric

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:06:00 GMT

Do you think the Indians are the mystery team on Saunders?

3:06 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:06:29 GMT

It hadn't occurred to me until you mentioned it, but that does make some sense.

3:07 Comment From Mike

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:07:20 GMT

Hi Ben. Joe Saunders - 2 years and 15 million? Is that over paying based on what else we have seen this off season?

3:07 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:07:49 GMT

I wouldn't consider it an overpay. It would line up with McCarthy and Blanton and it'd be less than what Guthrie got by a large margin.

3:08 Comment From Yanks Fan

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:08:06 GMT

Do we sign Hafner?

3:08 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:08:42 GMT

I think it's a fit. Seems like it could benefit team (power lefty bat on short-term deal) and player (winning team, good place for left-handed hitters).

3:08 Comment From DanMizer

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:08:49 GMT

Lets get this one out of the way! Percentage that the Yankees have to void ARods contract?

3:10 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:10:12 GMT

I highly doubt they'll be able to void it based on everything I've read. Remember, he has already admitted to using PEDs and that didn't lead to his deal being voided (I know at that time he was talking about an earlier period of time). If anything I can imagine the Yankees getting a settlement. For that to happen Rodriguez couldn't play presumably.

3:10 Comment From Carlos

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:10:18 GMT

What happens with Chase Headley? Extension, arbitration deal, trade, etc...?

3:10 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:10:51 GMT

I think they'll get a one-year deal done through arb and leave it at that. If they were to settle near the midpoint he'd be looking at $8.5MM or so.

3:11 Comment From Iain

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:11:15 GMT

Do you think the Miami revelations has made any free agent's stock increase?

3:12 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:12:31 GMT

It's hard to tell if MLB will suspend anyone now and how long the suspensions would even be. As a result of this uncertainty, no free agent saw his stock surge yesterday. But it's conceivable that Bourn and Lohse could benefit if it starts to look like Cruz and/or Gonzalez might face suspensions. That's speculation for now.

3:12 Comment From Justin

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:12:39 GMT

What are your thoughts on Arizona making a potential run at Bourn?

3:12 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:12:50 GMT

I think it'd be confusing and unnecessary.

3:12 Comment From Kris

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:12:57 GMT

What type of return could you see the Sox getting Ellsbury if they waited to deal him at the deadline?

3:13 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:13:25 GMT

It totally depends on what kind of year he's having. His value will be very, very high if he plays at the level of the 2011 production.

3:13 Comment From Bill Hall

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:13:42 GMT

Are any teams at least considering me for a minor league contract or is my career over?

3:14 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:14:08 GMT

I haven't seen anything on Bill Hall recently. Our last Hall-related rumor was in June 2012.

3:14 Comment From Kc

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:14:31 GMT

Royals sign Bourne to 1 year deal, what do you do?

3:15 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:15:18 GMT

I don't see it happening. I can imagine Bourn signing for less than the five years he appears to seek. So maybe he ends up with three or four and a player opt out. But I definitely don't see him signing for one year.

3:17 Comment From DanMizer

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:17:11 GMT

On Arod/Insurance- would it have to be an outside doctor who would have to deem Arod unable to perform this year or can it be a Yankee doc?

3:17 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:17:29 GMT

Oh I'm sure it'd have to be an outside doctor. But if his injury really is severe I doubt that would be an issue.

3:17 Comment From Johnny

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:17:38 GMT

Felix, Kershaw and Strasburg are all free agents right now, who gets the biggest contract?

3:18 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:18:28 GMT

Good question. I think it'd be Kershaw. He's younger than Felix and left-handed. He's proven himself to be durable, yet Strasburg hasn't done that yet. So I say it'd be Kershaw.

3:18 Comment From Chris Baggott

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:18:41 GMT

Where do you think Kyle Lohse end up? Rangers?Cardinals?

3:19 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:19:05 GMT

I can see him signing with the Rangers, the Orioles or the Nationals to name a few teams. I don't see him returning to St. Louis.

3:19 Comment From Brandon Lyon

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:19:29 GMT

Why haven't I signed yet? I am a good arm with a good track record. Shouldn't the Angels be all over me?

3:21 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:21:09 GMT

I think Lyon's presence on the market says more about how hard it is for relievers to find lucrative deals at this stage in the offseason than it does about Lyon. Guys like Lyon, Mark Lowe and K-Rod have limited leverage since no one is ever DESPERATE for a righty setup man and there are other options available.

3:21 Comment From Shawn

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:21:18 GMT

Do you think the Mets will be able to get out of paying a draft pick for Bourn? Sounds like that would set a bad precendent.

3:21 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:21:32 GMT

I agree with you. The Mets knew the rules; they should play by them.

3:21 Comment From LaBron

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:21:55 GMT

Bourne and Lohse to Miaimi one year deal. Gives them some experience. They have protected pick and can market something other than a mess

3:22 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:22:13 GMT

That's not happening. The Marlins didn't just trade away their high-priced stars to bring in new ones.

3:22 Comment From cubbie buddy

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:22:31 GMT

Considering there are some bad shortstops out there, should Gonzalez have gotten a starting job rather than backing up in Milwaukee?

3:22 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:22:54 GMT

He got $1.5MM on a Major League deal coming off an ACL injury -- I thought he did great to get that deal at his age!

3:23 Comment From Ricky

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:23:02 GMT

Do you expect any more big names to be implicated in this?

3:23 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:23:21 GMT

I have no idea. I hope not, but I won't be surprised if more players are linked to the Miami clinic.

3:23 Comment From Mike

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:23:27 GMT

Is Manny playing in 2013?

3:23 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:23:31 GMT

I doubt it.

3:23 Comment From Roger

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:23:44 GMT

Do you follow the MLB draft much? If so, how does the first round talent compare to last year?

3:24 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:24:23 GMT

We follow the draft here at MLBTR and you'll see lots of draft links in April, May and June. But I don't claim to be a draft guru by any stretch and couldn't speak to the relative strength of this year's draft class.

3:24 Comment From Thomas

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:24:36 GMT

How much do you think Headley ends up getting next year? How much if the Yankees do void Arods contract?

3:24 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:24:48 GMT

Headley is under team control as an arb eligible player through 2014.

3:24 Comment From Mike Trout

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:24:57 GMT

Should I hire Scott Boras to get the best contract for me?

3:25 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:25:29 GMT

I'm pretty sure every agent in the game would like to get their hands on Trout. It would surprise me if many agencies haven't already tried to 'poach' him.

3:26 Comment From j

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:26:24 GMT

any decent left handed relievers on the market

3:26 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:26:51 GMT

Okajima is coming off of quite a strong year in Japan -- hard to say how that would translate though, as he's an older player.

3:27 Comment From Matt S

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:27:38 GMT

Who does Jose Valverde sign with? Any shot the tigers take another shot at him?

3:28 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:28:00 GMT

Not sure where Valverde signs -- the Mets would be one possible destination -- but I don't see him returning to Detroit.

3:28 Comment From Jon

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:28:12 GMT

Do you see Buster Posey getting a larger contract than Joe Mauer?

3:28 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:28:42 GMT

Not if he signs this winter, maybe if he waits a little longer. Remember an extension now would cover his four arb years (at below market value).

3:29 Comment From Frank Wren

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:29:04 GMT

Is there any chance i lose the compensation pick for Bourn?

3:29 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:29:33 GMT

I can't see that happening unless Bourn does something unexpected like waiting until June (after the draft) to sign.

3:29 Comment From Marlins

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:29:39 GMT

Who wins the NL East?

3:29 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:29:56 GMT

I think the Nationals and Braves are the strongest teams in that division.

3:30 Comment From Anthony

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:30:16 GMT

Who do you see the Dodgers getting back for Harang or Capuano?

3:30 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:30:37 GMT

I doubt they'd get much for them. Perhaps a role player or solid but unremarkable prospect.

3:31 Comment From Frank Wren

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:31:11 GMT

Am I still an ace away from having a contender?

3:31 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:31:19 GMT

The Braves are a contender right now.

3:32 Comment From evan

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:32:00 GMT

Why do arb players always get raises even though they may have had a bad year? seems flawed to me...eg hunter pence

3:33 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:33:42 GMT

Well to start off the arb system is definitely flawed. You're right!

It rewards playing time above most other things -- 'quantity' over 'quality.' Arbitrators are generally ruling on other labor issues (MLB cases are a small part of their jobs) and in that context employees who 'punch the clock' are valued highly. Perhaps there's a link there.

3:34 Comment From curosity

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:34:04 GMT

Why was Shaun Marcum contract so bad for him?

3:34 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:34:35 GMT

Marcum did sign for less than I expected. I am guessing concerns about the health of his arm limited the market for him. From a performance standpoint he has been quite good.

3:34 Comment From Christian

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:34:44 GMT

How many games do you usually catch in a season?

3:35 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:35:02 GMT

20-25. Always fun to take in a game.

3:35 Comment From Cory

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:35:38 GMT

How about Matt Capps? Anyone go for him?

3:35 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:35:52 GMT

The Marlins reportedly like Capps.

3:36 Comment From Matt

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:36:02 GMT

Should the Os be trying to get Wieters extended now?

3:36 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:36:09 GMT

In my opinion yes, they should be.

3:36 Comment From Finding the Loophole

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:36:33 GMT

Crazy idea. A protected draft pick team signs Michael Bourn or Kyle Lohse for a 1 year deal and a clause guarantee no qualifying offer. That team then flips them at the trade deadline more then likely getting better value then the 2nd round pick they lose and the player gets anoher shot at their big payday next year.

3:37 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:37:02 GMT

I like the way you're thinking but you're not allowed to have clauses guaranteeing yes/no on offering/accepting qualifying offers per MLB.

3:37 Comment From New GM

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:37:41 GMT

what is the difference between salary and a signing bonus. what context would one be used over the other?

3:38 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:38:06 GMT

Salary is paid over the course of the year, while a bonus is usually paid immediately.

3:38 Comment From Guest

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:38:59 GMT

does tito's book make boston a less attractive destination for free agents?

3:39 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:39:28 GMT

I doubt it. How many players will read that book? 15? I think what makes Boston a less appealing place to play than in years past is the recent losing.

3:39 Comment From Bryce Harper

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:39:58 GMT

Will I get baseball's first $300M contract?

3:40 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:40:14 GMT

It wouldn't surprise me. We're a long way from that point, but it's possible!

3:40 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:40:58 GMT

Great questions so far. Keep 'em coming for the next 20 minutes or so. I'll put a poll up soon too.

3:41 Comment From Sonic

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:41:14 GMT

Kyle Lohse to Seattle?

3:41 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:41:30 GMT

I envision the Mariners spending for more of a low-cost, back-end veteran type.

3:41 Comment From CC

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:41:36 GMT

If you were a player, would you take less to play for a contender?

3:42 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:42:03 GMT

It'd depend on what stage of my career I was at. Early on I'd want to cash in. Later once I had tons of money winning would be more important.

3:42 Comment From bbad

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:42:36 GMT

who do you see as the most creative GM?

3:44 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:44:19 GMT

Good question, though it's not one I can answer as well as I'd like to. From what I see and read I'd put Epstein, Friedman and Beane on the list. In another way Towers is creative -- willing to deal and make moves. In all honestly you don't become a GM without some level of creative thought.

3:44 Comment From AllCards

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:44:27 GMT

Are the Cardinals through making trades? It doesn't seem like they have done much.

3:44 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:44:53 GMT

I expect the Cardinals are mostly done in terms of adding players. They didn't do much, but they didn't need to. I really like their team entering the 2013 season.

3:45 Comment From Guest

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:45:30 GMT

Joe Saunders to Minnesota for more than one year?

3:45 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:45:47 GMT

Based on reports this week it sounds like the Twins would go to two years for Saunders.

3:46 Comment From Matt

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:46:04 GMT

do you think dylan bundy could crak Os rotation out of spring training

3:46 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:46:18 GMT

If I had to guess I'd say no and that he'll join the club midseason.

3:46 Comment From Neil Hunnington

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:46:23 GMT

Why didnt I sign Loshe when I have two 1st rnd picks?

3:46 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:46:39 GMT

Draft picks aside there's still the question of whether Lohse is worth the dollars he's commanding.

3:46 Comment From The Bourne conundrum

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:46:48 GMT

Why worry about losing a draft pick - relative gamble - when you get a proven player NOW?

3:47 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:47:25 GMT

If teams could simply trade a draft pick for Bourn I think they would do it. That's a good deal. But there's also the cost of signing Bourn. When you figure that in it can be enough for teams to move on.

3:47 Comment From jacobturner

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:47:40 GMT

proximo miguel Cabrera ? Cual sera El proximo mike Trout?

3:48 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:48:29 GMT

I've said this before in these chats, but the reason Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera stand out so much is that there are few players like them. I have no idea when we'll see another player with equal abilities and skills enter the league.

3:48 Comment From Matt S

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:48:50 GMT

Could Arod's questionable future spark the yankees interest in Headley?

3:49 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:49:48 GMT

I see the two as mostly unrelated. I imagine the Yankees would have interest in Headley even if Rodriguez was not linked to these PEDs. Rodriguez was headed toward more time at DH to begin with. As it stands now I do think Headley could appeal to New York long-term.

3:50 Comment From The Seer

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:50:03 GMT

How good could the Indians be next season?

3:50 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:50:25 GMT

I see them as an improved team, but one that will fall short of the .500 mark.

3:50 Comment From Brewcrew Fan

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:50:43 GMT

Do you think the players association should allow the Mets to give up their second round pick to sign Michael Bourn?

3:51 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:51:25 GMT

Yes that would be great for the MLBPA. It'd mean that one of their members gets an extra bidder for his services. In general the MLBPA should seek to limit the effects of draft pick compensation.

3:51 Comment From Repo Man

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:51:39 GMT

If you were Sandy Alderson would you forfeit the #11 pick and 40% of your draft pool for Bourn?

3:51 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:51:42 GMT

No.

3:52 Comment From Scott

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:52:45 GMT

What are the Rays' chances of making the postseason this year?

3:53 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:53:24 GMT

I expect that they'll contend with strong run prevention again. But the division is tougher. I'd guess their chances are 45%.

3:53 Comment From Josh

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:53:36 GMT

What is the percentage of people getting Bourn's name wrong? I mean he is a heck of a player and nobody can spell it right.

3:54 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:54:02 GMT

I have seen errors in many mainstream media reports as well. Those Jason Bourne movies are confusing people!

3:54 Comment From Grapes

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:54:18 GMT

How much will the Reds regret trading Stubbs?

3:54 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:54:26 GMT

I don't expect they'll regret it.

3:54 Comment From guy

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:54:39 GMT

re no clauses precluding a qualifying offer ... there's no way that the Nats didn't have a handshake agreement with Edwin Jackson not to extend him an offer, right?

3:55 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:55:04 GMT

I couldn't say. If they did have such an agreement, it wouldn't be the first time teams and players had made that kind of pact.

3:55 Comment From bbad

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:55:29 GMT

what do you think about the new draft pick compensation system? is it better or worse then the A and B system? And do you think MLB will tweek it?

3:55 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:55:49 GMT

I think it's better for the players this way, since fewer players are affected by the compensation rules.

3:55 Comment From Mike

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:55:58 GMT

Can a team sign two top 10 FA's and only have to lose one first round pick?

3:56 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:56:15 GMT

Well if you only have one first rounder you can only lose one first rounder. But you'd then lose later picks.

3:56 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:56:20 GMT

Time for a few more...

3:56 Comment From The PTBNL

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:56:29 GMT

Who has the worst record in 2013?

3:56 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:56:33 GMT

Astros.

3:56 Comment From Alex

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:56:46 GMT

Better season: Justin Upton or Jason Heyward?

3:56 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:56:58 GMT

I'd guess Heyward. That is one awesome outfield though.

3:57 Comment From David S

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:57:11 GMT

Any teams gearing up now to make runs at Stanton and Price?

3:57 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:57:26 GMT

Buster Olney suggested some teams are keeping their prospects for that very reason.

3:57 Comment From jibbajibb

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:57:59 GMT

will the rangers make a move?

3:58 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:58:06 GMT

I still think they do something.

3:58 Ben Nicholson-Smith

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:58:18 GMT

Thanks for chatting everyone! We'll talk again next week.

3:58

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:58:34 GMT